Ziggy Ojiegbe

The United Nations has warned that ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global food crisis, as constrained flows of fuel and fertilizers threaten agricultural production and raise the risk of higher food prices worldwide.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), tensions in the critical shipping corridor have already begun to restrict the movement of key inputs needed for the upcoming planting season, with potentially far-reaching consequences for global food systems.

FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero said the scale of disruption is significant, noting that between 30 and 35 percent of global crude oil flows, around 20 percent of natural gas, and up to 30 percent of fertilizers moving through the route are currently affected.

“That’s the magnitude of the potential impact,” he warned, pointing to the central role of energy and fertilizers in sustaining agricultural output.

The warning comes despite a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which has done little to restore confidence among shipowners and insurers. Continued tensions, including a U.S. blockade targeting vessels linked to Iranian ports, have left many ships idle and supply chains under strain.

While cargo that left the Gulf before the escalation has largely reached its destinations, FAO officials say the world is now entering a more critical phase where supply gaps could begin to emerge.

David Laborde, Director of FAO’s Agrifood Economics Division, said the immediate effects of the disruption may only become fully visible in the coming days and weeks.

“We are going to see the real stop in supply,” he said, warning that delays in shipments could disrupt the timely availability of inputs needed by farmers.

So far, global food prices have remained relatively stable. The FAO Food Price Index for March showed only modest increases, supported by strong global stocks and favourable harvests in the previous year.

However, officials caution that this resilience may be temporary. As farmers prepare for the next planting cycle, higher input costs and limited access to fertilizers could force them to reduce usage or switch crops, potentially lowering yields in the next season.

“If we don’t have the inputs in the time that is needed, producers will have to produce with less,” Torero said. “That could result in lower yields.”

The risks extend across the entire food supply chain. Energy is essential for farm machinery, irrigation, transport and processing, while fertilizers, particularly nitrogen-based products derived from natural gas, are critical for maintaining crop productivity.

The impact is expected to be global, affecting both major agricultural producers such as the United States, Canada and Australia, and import-dependent regions, including parts of Africa and Asia, where countries rely heavily on external supplies of fuel and fertilizers.

Rising energy costs are also increasing the likelihood that crops such as maize, sugar and oilseeds will be diverted toward biofuel production, further tightening food supply.

“If we have rising demand because biofuels consume more, and lower supply because we have fewer inputs, food prices will go up,” Laborde said.

FAO also warned that the situation could worsen if additional pressures emerge, such as export restrictions or climate-related shocks like El Niño, which have historically disrupted agricultural production.

Torero urged governments to avoid imposing export bans on food, energy or fertilizers, warning that such measures could amplify global shortages and push vulnerable countries out of the market.

The consequences of a prolonged disruption could be severe, particularly for low-income households that spend a larger share of income on food, and for governments already grappling with inflation and debt pressures.

FAO is calling for urgent coordinated action, including maintaining open trade flows, supporting farmers with financing and credit, and strengthening social protection systems for vulnerable populations.

While the agency stressed that a full-scale food crisis is not yet inevitable, it warned that the window to prevent one is narrowing rapidly.

“The clock is the key,” Torero said. “We must act now to avoid a crisis that can still be prevented.”