The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reported a significant decline in crude oil production among its member states, citing the ongoing conflict involving Iran as a major disruptor to supply across the Middle East.

In its production report for March, OPEC disclosed that total crude output from member countries fell by 27 percent month-on-month to below 21 million barrels per day. The drop comes despite increased production from some members, including Nigeria, highlighting the uneven impact of the crisis across the cartel.

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The steepest declines were recorded among key Middle Eastern producers—Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates—where output has been heavily affected by instability linked to the regional conflict.

Data from Iraq underscores the scale of disruption. The country announced on Monday that its crude oil exports plunged to approximately 18.6 million barrels in March, down sharply from about 99.9 million barrels recorded in February.

OPEC’s report also noted a slight decline in production from Iran itself, alongside reduced output from other members such as Algeria, Libya, and Gabon. In contrast, Nigeria emerged as a rare bright spot, posting an increase in production during the period.

Beyond supply disruptions, the group signaled concerns over weakening global demand in the near term. OPEC said it has revised downward its forecast for oil demand in the second quarter of the year by 500,000 barrels per day, attributing the adjustment to the economic and market uncertainty created by the conflict.

However, the organization maintained a more optimistic outlook for the full year. It left its global oil demand growth projection for 2026 unchanged, expecting consumption to rise by 1.4 million barrels per day.

According to OPEC, the current softness in demand is likely to be temporary, with stronger consumption anticipated in the third and fourth quarters as markets stabilize and supply chains adjust.

The report underscores the fragile balance in global oil markets, where geopolitical tensions continue to influence both production levels and demand expectations, even as some producers attempt to offset losses with increased output.