Sopuruchi Onwuka, with agency reports

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its non-member allies (OPEC+) are expected to weigh another modest increase in oil production this weekend, even as the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and global crude prices near four-year highs.

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Eight key OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman are scheduled to meet on Sunday to discuss May production quotas. Sources familiar with the talks told Reuters that a further 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase is likely, mirroring the output hike agreed for April.

“Even if the waterway remains closed, we need to react, at least on paper,” one source said, signaling OPEC+’s intent to show readiness to ramp up output once tankers can resume shipping through Hormuz. Analysts caution that any immediate impact on supply will be limited, given that the strait accounts for over 20% of global oil transit and remains effectively blocked.

The closure has prompted the largest oil supply disruption on record, forcing top Gulf producers to cut output. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have partially mitigated the impact by rerouting shipments: Saudi crude exports through Yanbu on the Red Sea have surged to roughly 4.6 million bpd, while UAE exports from Fujairah rose to 1.61 million bpd in March from 1.17 million bpd in February. Russia has also faced disruptions from drone attacks.

Crude prices have reacted sharply to the geopolitical tensions. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly dipped toward $100 per barrel following President Donald Trump’s statement that U.S. operations against Iran could end soon, only to rebound above $140 per barrel on Thursday amid renewed threats. Physical benchmarks in the Middle East have reached levels reminiscent of the 2008 energy crisis, with Tehran openly discussing a toll mechanism for ships transiting the strait.

The OPEC+ group, which includes 22 members but has seen only eight participate in recent monthly production decisions, had already increased output by about 2.9 million bpd from April through December 2025—roughly 3% of global demand—before pausing production hikes for January to March 2026.

While formal consultations between members have not begun, a second meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is also scheduled for Sunday to review compliance and adjust policy if needed.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the Middle East crisis and coordination within OPEC+ during a phone call on Thursday, underscoring the geopolitical dimension of the supply disruptions.

Market analysts note that while some producers have spare capacity, most of the eight-country group faces limitations in immediately raising output, leaving the global oil market highly sensitive to developments in the strait. “Now the market requires every barrel that can be produced,” one OPEC+ source said.

As tensions continue and export disruptions persist, OPEC+ appears ready to signal flexibility and preparedness, even if the bulk of the additional barrels cannot yet reach international markets.