Head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, has warned that a lasting agreement between the United States and Iran is essential to stabilize global energy supplies, as uncertainty lingers despite a temporary ceasefire.

He said the recently announced two-week truce is a positive step but stressed that energy operations across the Middle East cannot fully resume without confidence in a permanent deal.

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“A decision to restart oil and gas activities can only be made if there is certainty that this ceasefire will lead to a lasting agreement,” Birol said in a statement.

While welcoming the pause in hostilities, he noted that easing tensions is crucial not only for energy markets but also for the livelihoods of millions across the region.

However, Birol cautioned that restoring production will take time. Key infrastructure has already suffered significant damage, including oil refineries, petrochemical plants, upstream oil and gas facilities, and parts of major liquefied natural gas operations such as the Ras Laffan complex.

Beyond infrastructure challenges, he highlighted logistical delays in global supply chains. Tankers leaving the Gulf can reach South Asia within days, but deliveries to Europe or other parts of Asia may take weeks, further slowing market recovery.

In recent interviews with Chosun Ilbo and Süddeutsche Zeitung, Birol described the current crisis as a turning point for global energy markets.

“The situation is like broken glass; we cannot return to the pre-war era,” he said, warning that the shockwaves could persist for years.

Birol, who has led the IEA since 2015, also warned that the combined impact of the conflict on energy supply and food security could amount to a crisis more severe than the 1970s oil shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine combined.

Founded in 1974 in response to the global oil crisis, the IEA monitors energy markets and advises governments on policy. Its latest warning underscores the fragile state of global supply as the world watches whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire can hold—and evolve into a lasting peace.