There are growing indications that Nigeria may fall short of the federal government’s ambitious target of achieving a 7 per cent economic growth rate by 2027, as the pace of recovery remains modest and the gap between current performance and the stated objective continues to widen.

Official data show that the economy expanded by 3.89 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, representing a slight slowdown from the 4.07 per cent growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The latest figures suggest that while economic reforms have helped stabilize growth, the economy remains significantly below the level required to attain the government’s medium-term target.

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According to the latest report by the National Bureau of Statistics, growth weakened in both the oil and non-oil sectors during the first quarter when compared with the preceding quarter, reflecting persistent structural challenges across key segments of the economy.

Since assuming office in 2023, Bola Tinubu has implemented far-reaching economic reforms, including the removal of fuel and electricity subsidies, exchange-rate liberalization and tax policy adjustments aimed at strengthening public finances, attracting investment and accelerating economic growth.

The reforms have contributed to a gradual improvement in economic performance. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth increased to 3.87 per cent in 2025 from 3.38 per cent in 2024. However, the current growth trajectory remains well below the annual 7 per cent expansion rate targeted by the administration for 2027.

Economic analysts note that achieving the target would require a dramatic acceleration in growth over the next year, driven by stronger investment inflows, improved productivity, expanded industrial activity and significantly higher output from the oil sector.

Data from the statistics agency show that Nigeria’s average crude oil production stood at 1.55 million barrels per day during the first quarter of 2026, slightly lower than the 1.58 million barrels per day recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The decline underscores the challenges facing a sector that remains critical to government revenue, foreign exchange earnings and overall economic performance.

With less than two years remaining before the 2027 target date, economists argue that sustaining growth above current levels will require deeper reforms to address infrastructure deficits, improve the business environment, boost agricultural and manufacturing productivity, and strengthen investor confidence.

The latest growth figures therefore suggest that although Nigeria’s economy is recovering, the pace of expansion may not be sufficient to deliver the government’s 7 per cent growth ambition by 2027 unless there is a significant improvement in performance across both the oil and non-oil sectors.