Ziggy Ojiegbe

Oil prices climbed sharply above $100 per barrel on March 24 as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified, underscoring growing market anxiety despite signs of diplomatic engagement.

The surge came just a day after the United States disclosed ongoing negotiations with Iran, highlighting the disconnect between political messaging and developments on the ground.

Reports of continued airstrikes involving Iran and Israel, alongside news that the U.S. could deploy its 82nd Airborne Division to the region within hours, reinforced concerns that the conflict could escalate further.

Global benchmark Brent crude rose 4.6 percent to $104.49 per barrel, recovering after briefly dipping below the $100 mark for the first time in over a week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate also posted strong gains, climbing 4.8 percent to $92.35 per barrel.

The rebound reflects a market increasingly sensitive to supply risks, particularly given the strategic importance of the Middle East in global oil flows.

The price spike came amid conflicting signals from Washington. While President Donald Trump confirmed that negotiations with Iran were underway and suggested both sides were open to a deal, hostilities have persisted.

According to reports, discussions about potential high-level talks could take place as early as March 26, but Iran’s public denial of direct engagement and continued military actions have cast doubt on the likelihood of a near-term resolution.

Financial markets reacted cautiously to the uncertainty. U.S. equities, which had rallied in the previous session, reversed course, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 falling 0.3 percent and the Nasdaq declining 0.8 percent.

The pullback reflects investor unease over the risk that prolonged conflict could disrupt global energy supplies and weigh on economic growth.

At the same time, traditional safe-haven indicators strengthened. The U.S. dollar rose, with the dollar index gaining around 0.5 percent to 99.21, while Treasury yields also moved higher.

The benchmark 10-year yield climbed to 4.39 percent, and the more policy-sensitive two-year yield rose to 3.93 percent, suggesting expectations of sustained monetary tightness alongside geopolitical risk.

Market sentiment has been further complicated by mixed messaging around the diplomatic process. While U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, are reportedly involved in negotiations, ongoing attacks and Iran’s rejection of direct talks have weakened confidence that diplomacy will deliver a quick breakthrough. As a result, traders are increasingly pricing in the possibility of prolonged instability in the region.

The latest developments reinforce how sensitive oil markets remain to geopolitical shocks. With supply risks rising and no clear resolution in sight, prices are likely to remain volatile in the near term, particularly if tensions between Iran, Israel and the United States continue to escalate.