*Dangote’s price cuts face implementation challenges

Sopuruchi Onwuka

The domestic fuel market is set to end 2026 with slight fall in the prices of transportation fuels, especially the premium motor spirit popularly called petrol which fires cars and light buses used in inter-state mass transit.

A survey of the fuel market by Oracle Intelligence in the face of the prevailing yuletide season associated with mass movement of people for the Christmas and New Year celebrations showed price fall across all segments of the market.

Meanwhile, leading indigenous fuel producer, Dangote Refinery, continues to pledge deeper price cuts which appears difficult to spread across all MRS retail outlets in Lagos and Abuja -the two cities that dominate fuel demand in the country.

The bearish domestic fuel market followed interaction of forces at the international fuel market where oversupply predictions continue to rule market sentiments. Thus, the prevailing pull on prices the prices of crude oil and condensate at global petroleum exchanges continue to transfer downward pressure on the prices of refinery outputs.

Oracle Intelligence reports that the price of the reference Brent crude oil grade briefly broke the $60 per barrel price floor at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) following strong production performance by the United States of America which currently rules global oil output with significant 13.6 million barrels per day.

The Brent crude grade had on December 16 dipped to $58 per barrel before surfing up to $62 per barrel on Monday. Brent crude grade price at the ICE of London had descended from a 52-week high of $82.53 per barrel, leading analysts to predict that prices would remain bearish into 2026.

Consequently, refinery products have aligned with the new price trend in the crude oil market as refiners optimize throughput in the face of comfortable margins.

In Nigeria where Dangote Refinery is locked in a mortal battle with importers, prices have dropped from about N910 per liter in the early third quarter of the year to current range between N739 and N870 irrespective of supply source.

Despite repeated efforts by the publicists of the Dangote Refinery in promoting petroleum price of N739 MRS stations, prices at most of the branded filling stations remain above N840 per liter.

Following fact check by Oracle Intelligence after the initial price cut was announced by Dangote Refinery, nearly all MRS stations visited by our field reported were seen selling the product at N870 per liter.

The company issued fresh public statement weekend reiterating the pledge by Alhaji Aliko Dangote that price of petrol at controlled MRS retail outlets remain N739 per liter. Dangote Refinery urged the public to report on any MRS filling station flouting the company’s internal price control.

Using field reporters and syndicate correspondents across the country, Oracle Intelligence was able to confirm some MRS selling at the controlled price to include those located at Oba Akran, Alapere, Ketu, Kodesho Street by Computer Village in Ikeja, Iju Road by Pen Cenima, Abule Egba Underbridge, and Ojota, all in Lagos State.

In Abuja the MRS filling station at Kubwa is reported to be beehive of motorists seeking to save over N100 per liter over other filling stations in the capital city.

However, our observation at the field showed that price reduction has happened across the market irrespective of which market faction was selling for either importers or local refineries in the country. Even the MRS fillings stations at Agbado Ijaiye, Liasu Road in Idimu, Isuti Road in Igando and other countless stations of the market in less prominent locations to compete with prevailing prices in their respective environments.

MRS stations sell at N840 per liter of petrol at Isuti Road, N880 per liter at Liasu Road and Agbado Ijaiye.

Dangote had released a hotline for motorists to report on any MRS station that breaks the price ceiling, indicating incipient difficulties in bringing its distribution and retail partners under control.

Our checks on Monday in the Alimosho council area of Lagos showed that the NNPC Retail outlet along the LASU-Idimu Expressway became the star of the market, selling at N799 per liter of petrol.

Other retail outlets operated by major and independent marketers in the axis sold at prices ranging from N835 to N845 per liter.

Our survey showed that fuel currently sells cheapest in Lagos state, followed by the Federal Capital Territory, then the entire Southwest zone, some Southsouth states like Cross River and Akwa Ibom where importers receive products.

Prices in North Central states follow, taking logistics advantage of proximity to Abuja and environs.

Our Survey showed that fuel sells highest in Southeast and southernmost states of Rivers and Bayelsa, following Northeast and Northwest states of the country where interventions by Dangote and MRS retail alliance continue to counter market forces.

Overall, travelers in the Yuletide season have other things to worry about, like bad roads and security while in transit. The combination of stable prices of crude oil and condensate at the international market, and the prevailing competition between domestic refiners and importers in the domestic market have inadvertently controlled prices despite the surge in demand.