Eyes N20.4 trn in 2022

Sopuruchi Onwuka

Nigeria has accumulated princely $21 billion or some N12.6 trillion oil income in the first seven months of the year, posting an outlook of significant $37 billion or N20.4 trillion for the year.

Market value of oil in this report is calculated at prevailing foreign exchange rate of about N600 to a dollar.

The figures which are the actual oil revenue calculated for Nigeria in a Short Term Oil Outlook (STEO), the prized industry report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the United States, also showed that the country’s per capita oil income for the first seven months of the year stood at $97.

The figures by the EIA showed actual earnings of $88 billion from January 2020 to December 2022 as against $90 billion projected oil income earlier estimated for Nigeria in the same period by the agency which manages industry and energy market data for the US government.

According to EIA, Nigeria realized some $21 billion from January and July in actual oil income as against nominal revenue $23 billion in the period.

Country	2020	2021	2022	2023	Jan-July 2022	2020	2021	2022	2023	Jan-Jul 2022
Algeria	$15	$25	$39	$35	$24	$15	$25	$36	$32	$22
Angola	$18	$27	$43	$40	$26	$19	$27	$40	$36	$24
Congo (Brazzaville)	$3	$6	$9	$8	$5	$4	$6	$8	$7	$5
Ecuador Guinea	$2	$3	$5	$4	$3	$2	$3	$4	$4	$2
Gabon	$2	$4	$6	$5	$4	$2	$4	$6	$5	$4
Iran	$17	$39	$62	$57	$37	$17	$39	$58	$51	$34
Iraq	$48	$83	$131	$120	$77	$50	$83	$121	$109	$72
Kuwait	$34	$59	$100	$94	$58	$36	$59	$93	$85	$54
Libya	$4	$26	$28	$27	$16	$4	$26	$26	$24	$15
Nigeria	$21	$29	$40	$45	$23	$22	$29	$37	$40	$21
Saudi Arabia	$106	$184	$304	$266	$184	$111	$184	$282	$240	$171
United Arab Emirates	$46	$75	$125	$120	$73	$48	$75	$116	$108	$68
Venezuela	$4	$8	$16	$13	$9	$4	$8	$15	$12	$9
OPEC total	$320	$570	$907	$835	$539	$335	$570	$842	$752	$500

The figures published in STEO showed that Nigeria’s oil income has maintained a rising trend from 2021 after smarting from the lows of 2020 when the novel coronavirus pandemic wiped off significant demand from the world oil market.

The comparative data of actual revenue performance of selected oil producing countries as against nominal revenues showed that Nigeria exceeded her 2020 revenue projection by a billion dollars, posting $22 billion of income against projected market cash returns of $21 billion for the same year.

In 2021, Nigeria delivered $29 billion revenue performance as projected by the EIA. However, the country is under way to total revenue of $37 billion instead of projected $40 billion for 2022. The EIA revised down its 2023 revenue forecast from $45 billion to $40 billion.

In its 2022 budget framework, Nigeria projected oil production at 1.88 million barrels per day (mbd) at an average price of $62 per barrel. The Central Bank of Nigeria fixed the official exchange rate at N410 per US dollar.

The World Bank had forecast that crude oil prices will average US$74 pb in 2022 as oil demand strengthens and reaches pre-pandemic levels; and EIA expects Brent reference prices to average $70.05 per barrel in 2022.

The Oracle Today reports that although Nigeria’s total production capacity is 2.5 mbd, current crude production is slightly short of the OPEC+ production quota at about 1.4mbd. The country produces additional 300,000bpd of condensates. The total crude oil plus condensate puts Nigeria’s output at about 1.6mbd.

However, the National Assembly maintained the proposed oil and condensate production volume of 1.88mbd for 2022.

The EIA had earlier predicted that global oil production would increase to match rising levels of global oil consumption. And the 2022 OPEC crude production was projected to average 28.34 million barrels per day in 2022, higher than 26.94 million barrels per day forecast for 2021.

The Nigerian oil export receipts form part of the total nominal and actual revenue by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which has been calculated by the EIA at $570 billion in 2021.

Country	2020	2021	2022	2023	Jan-Jul 2022	2020	2021	2022	2023	Jan-Jul 2022
Algeria	$342	$565	$883	$785	$528	$358	$565	$819	$708	$490
Angola	$547	$806	$1,240	$1,106	$738	$573	$806	$1,151	$997	$685
Congo (Brazzaville)	$611	$1,069	$1,432	$1,248	$828	$639	$1,069	$1,329	$1,125	$769
Equatorial Guinea	$1,471	$2,132	$3,130	$2,893	$1,762	$1,540	$2,132	$2,905	$2,608	$1,636
Gabon	$1,085	$1,887	$2,878	$2,275	$1,799	$1,136	$1,887	$2,671	$2,051	$1,670
Iran	$198	$465	$730	$664	$431	$207	$465	$678	$599	$400
Iraq	$1,151	$1,945	$2,988	$2,685	$1,771	$1,205	$1,945	$2,774	$2,421	$1,644
Kuwait	$7,989	$13,610	$22,577	$20,970	$13,186	$8,363	$13,610	$20,956	$18,905	$12,240
Libya	$587	$3,873	$4,143	$3,876	$2,401	$614	$3,873	$3,845	$3,494	$2,229
Nigeria	$101	$138	$182	$200	$105	$106	$138	$169	$180	$97
Saudi Arabia	$3,063	$5,221	$8,508	$7,343	$5,149	$3,207	$5,221	$7,897	$6,619	$4,780
United Arab Emirates	$4,670	$7,517	$12,394	$11,807	$7,228	$4,888	$7,517	$11,504	$10,644	$6,709
Venezuela	$117	$253	$460	$373	$277	$122	$253	$427	$336	$257
OPEC total	$634	$1,104	$1,725	$1,556	$1,024	$663	$1,104	$1,601	$1,403	$950

The American agency stated that OPEC members earned about $570 billion in net oil export revenue in 2021, a 76% increase from 2020 when OPEC net oil export revenue totaled an estimated $320 billion.

The 2020 figures were the lowest revenue by the oil exporters group since 2003; and EIA attributed the increase in net export revenue in 2021 to a combination of increased OPEC production and higher crude oil prices during the year.

The EIA noted that OPEC increased production as OPEC+ production targets rose. Total liquids production among all OPEC producers rose to 31.7 mbd in 2021 from 30.7 mbd in 2020. Crude oil prices also rose as global oil consumption outpaced oil production, resulting in persistent withdrawals from global oil inventories.

The increase in oil consumption in 2021 occurred as economic activity increased and the global economy began to return to pre-COVID-19 conditions, the EIA stated.

According to the revenue data prepared by the EIA, Iran, Libya, and Venezuela, which are OPEC members that are not subject to the OPEC+ production targets, also increased their total liquids production in 2021.

Using standard oil price benchmarks, EIA estimated net export revenues rising by $23 billion in Iran, $22 billion in Libya, and $5 billion in Venezuela year over year. However, the estimates do not take into account possible changes to discounts that Iran and Venezuela offered to their buyers.

The EIA stated that Saudi Arabia which produces the most crude oil among OPEC members accounted more than one-third of all OPEC oil revenue in 2021with net export revenue of $184 billion.

The oil revenues of 2021 were supported by a 70% rise in OPEC’s Reference Basket price; and the EIA calculated that OPEC net per capita oil export revenue rose from $634 in 2020 to $1,104 in 2021.

In the August STEO, the EIA forecast that OPEC’s total liquids production would average 34.0 mbd in 2022 and further increase to 34.5 mbd in 2023.

“We forecast that OPEC net oil revenue will increase to $907 billion in 2022. This increase is attributable to an increase in crude oil and other liquids production by OPEC along with an increase in crude oil prices,” the agency stated.

Despite a forecast increase in OPEC output in 2023, the EIA expects that OPEC net export revenue will decrease to $835 billion as a result of forecast decrease in global crude oil prices.

The agency based its 2023 price fall forecast on global oil inventories that began to build in the second quarter of 2022 and projected to continue building through much of 2023.

“We forecast that 2022 per capita revenue will reach $1,725 and that 2023 per capita revenue will decrease to $1,556,” the EIA stated.