Ziggy Ojiegbe

Rising tensions in the Middle East kept crude oil and natural gas prices elevated on Monday, as global markets reacted to escalating threats involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.

Iran warned it could intensify attacks on energy infrastructure if invaded by U.S. forces. This threat came just hours before the expiration of a 48-hour ultimatum issued by U.S. President Donald Trump, demanding that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face severe military consequences.

Earlier, Iran had indicated it would only allow passage through the Strait for ships linked to countries not aligned with the United States or Israel. It also suggested imposing tolls and requiring security clearance for vessels seeking to pass through the critical waterway.

As tensions mounted, the United States increased its naval presence in the region, signaling readiness to force the Strait open if necessary. Washington also warned that Iran’s energy infrastructure could be targeted if the blockade continued.

With the deadline approaching and no signs of compromise, Iran escalated its rhetoric on Monday, threatening to strike Gulf power plants and mine key waterways. At the same time, Israel launched a new wave of attacks, targeting infrastructure in Tehran.

These threats have raised serious concerns across Gulf Arab states, where power generation is closely tied to desalination facilities that supply drinking water. Any disruption could affect both electricity and water supplies in the region.

Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency published a list of potential targets, including critical facilities in the United Arab Emirates. Over the weekend, Iran also launched missiles toward Dimona in Israel, home to a sensitive nuclear-related facility, though no damage was reported.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces confirmed a broad expansion of strikes on Tehran, focusing on infrastructure but providing limited details.

Iran’s Defense Council warned that any attempt to attack its coasts or islands would result in the mining of access routes across the Persian Gulf. This would further threaten global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes.

Although Iran insists the Strait remains technically open, it has restricted access for vessels linked to the U.S., Israel, and their allies. Only a limited number of ships have managed to pass through.

There are also growing concerns that U.S. Marines could be deployed to seize strategic territory or islands to secure the waterway. Israel has indicated that its ground forces could potentially join such operations.

In response to U.S. threats, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned it would retaliate by targeting power plants and infrastructure connected to American interests across the region.

Oil markets have already reacted sharply. Brent crude prices hovered around $112 per barrel, marking a roughly 55% increase since the conflict escalated on February 28, when U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran.

Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, warned that the crisis could surpass the impact of past global energy shocks, including those of the 1970s and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Similarly, Jorge Moreira da Silva of the United Nations highlighted the widespread economic fallout, noting sharp increases in oil, fuel, and gas prices that are hitting developing countries in Asia and Africa particularly hard.

He emphasized that there is no military solution to the crisis.

Global financial markets have also been volatile, reflecting growing fears of a prolonged energy disruption and broader economic instability.

On the military front, U.S. Central Command chief Brad Cooper stated that operations against Iran are progressing as planned. He claimed that Iranian forces were launching attacks from populated areas and warned civilians to remain indoors for their safety.

According to Iranian officials, the death toll in the country has surpassed 1,500. In Israel, at least 15 people have been killed by Iranian strikes. Additional casualties have been reported across the West Bank and Gulf states.

In Lebanon, Israeli strikes targeting Iran-linked Hezbollah forces have reportedly killed over 1,000 people and displaced more than one million. In response, Hezbollah has launched hundreds of rockets into Israel.