The Chief Executive Officer of Rystad Energy, Jarand Rystad, stated in an xtraordinary market note on the energy transition and limiting of global warming to 1.5-degrees that the planet also needs to achieve large scale decarbonization of the industrial sector through a combination of electrification, hydrogen-switching, CCUS and reduced primary energy consumption.
He pointed out that the targets could be achieved through a shift towards secondary sourcing of raw materials, adding that decarbonizing transport is yet another driver.
“For the slightly less ambitious 1.6-degree scenario, our model shows that more than 70% of car sales must be electric by 2030 – and the world is on presently on track with that trajectory.
“For the building sector, decarbonization will be driven by the rapid growth of rooftop solar (PV and hot water) and heat pumps, and the current pace is promising.
“Analysis shows that the CCUS segment is finally taking off and could grow from a few million tonnes per year at present to 475 Mt by 2030, before accelerating to 3,600 Mt by 2040 and 7,800 Mt by 2050,” Rystad stated.
Mr Rystad stated that the currents emerging from the resurgence of the coronavirus disease and the unexpected Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine in the early parts of the year shattered the global economic plans and reordered human priorities.
According to him, the first half of the year was derailed by Covid-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, two events that collectively dealt a vicious blow to the global economy, precipitously raised geopolitical risks, exposed dependencies, and reshuffled the priorities of nations and industries.
He said COVID-19 and Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly shaken the global economy in different ways have and raised serious concerns about the capacity of the industry to coordinate players’s collaboration in meeting existing climate targets of 1.5 degrees of warming.
Rystad declared in a note that despite the fundamental changes, there is still hope of limiting global warming to the 1.5-degree target.
“The answer is yes, but achieving it will require an extraordinary effort by energy companies in all corners of the globe,” the company said in a statement made available to The Oracle Today..
“The road to success starts with decarbonizing the all-important power sector. I expect that electricity’s share of the energy carrier segment will soar from 20% at present to 60% by 2050. To achieve this, the single most important requirement is that the annual deployment of new solar PV capacity climbs to about 1400 GW per year by 2035.
“Rapid growth of wind power, in-grid battery parks and hydrogen production are other requirements – and our supply chain analysis shows that this will be a tough challenge, but not an impossible one.
“In short, net zero in carbon dioxide could be reached between 2055 and 2075 with technologies already identified, and with new innovations representing an upside.
“This would limit global warming to between 1.6 and 1.8 degrees, assuming status quo on other GHG emissions.
However, we believe that significant reductions of methane and nitrous oxide also can be achieved. This, together with faster reduction of deforestation, represents an upside of between 0.2 and 0.3 degrees.
In aggregate, therefore, we should still be optimistic that the 1.5-degree target is within reach.
