Ziggy Ojiegbe

The United Nations has called for urgent action to resolve the escalating crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, warning that continued disruption to one of the world’s most critical shipping routes is already placing severe strain on the global economy.

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UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed deep concern over restrictions on free passage through the narrow waterway, noting that the blockage is impeding the delivery of vital commodities such as oil, gas and fertiliser. He warned that the situation is effectively “strangling the global economy” at a time when many countries are still recovering from recent global shocks.

Addressing correspondents, Guterres outlined possible outcomes depending on how quickly the situation is resolved. He said that even if restrictions on shipping and trade are lifted immediately, global supply chains would take months to recover, with economic growth projected to decline from 3.4 to 3.1 percent, inflation rising to about 4.4 percent, and trade slowing sharply. He added that such a scenario, while the most optimistic, would still deepen economic distress in a world already grappling with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.

He warned that if disruptions linked to Iranian attacks and threats, alongside a United States blockade of Iranian ports, continue through midyear, the consequences would become far more severe. According to UN estimates, as many as 32 million people could be pushed into poverty, fertiliser shortages could reduce agricultural output, and an additional 45 million people could face extreme hunger, effectively reversing years of development gains.

Guterres cautioned that a prolonged crisis lasting until the end of the year could trigger a global recession with far-reaching economic, political and social consequences. He emphasised that the effects would not be linear but would worsen rapidly over time, stressing that the longer the waterway remains disrupted, the more difficult it will be to reverse the damage. He called on all parties to immediately restore navigational rights and freedoms, urging that the strait be reopened to allow the global economy to stabilise.

Efforts are underway within the UN system to mitigate the crisis. The United Nations Office for Project Services is leading a task force exploring the establishment of a humanitarian corridor through the strait to facilitate the movement of essential goods. At the same time, the International Maritime Organization is developing a framework to evacuate ships and seafarers if safe passage conditions can be guaranteed.

The economic impact of the standoff is already being felt across global energy markets, with Brent crude prices rising to around $118 per barrel, heightening fears of fuel shortages and increased costs worldwide. The effects have been most immediate in Southeast and South Asia, where dependence on energy imports is high, but officials warn that the crisis is spreading rapidly.

Dario Liguti of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe described the situation as an unfolding global energy crisis, noting that consumers in Europe are already experiencing rising fuel prices. He warned that the disruption highlights the vulnerability of economies that remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels and exposed to geopolitical shocks.

In response, UNECE has been working with countries to explore ways to reduce reliance on traditional energy sources and improve efficiency. One area of focus is the reduction of methane waste, a form of natural gas that is often flared at oil wells and refineries. The agency argues that capturing and storing this gas for future use could help ease supply pressures while also reducing environmental harm, given methane’s significantly higher short-term impact on global warming compared to carbon dioxide.

The crisis has also reinforced calls for a faster transition to renewable energy. UN officials say expanding cleaner and more decentralised energy systems, including electrification of transport and heating, would not only reduce environmental risks but also strengthen energy security in the face of global disruptions.

As the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz continues with no immediate resolution in sight, the United Nations has warned that the stakes extend far beyond the region, with the potential to reshape global economic stability if urgent action is not taken.