• Turkey, Australia dispute over hosting COP31

Ethiopia is poised to host COP32 in 2027, positioning the country to play a central role in shaping global climate discussions at a time when Africa’s climate vulnerabilities are under growing scrutiny. While the decision is not yet formally adopted, African negotiators have endorsed Ethiopia and approval by all parties is expected before COP30 ends on November 21.

The news broke during the second day of COP30 in Belém, Brazil. Richard Muyungi, chair of the Africa Group of Negotiators, confirmed the continent’s consensus, and the Brazilian COP30 presidency acknowledged the choice. Ethiopia was selected over Nigeria after African states assessed their options under the UN’s regional rotation system.

Ad >>>

The last time a sub-Saharan African country hosted the conference was South Africa in 2011, and analysts say Ethiopia’s selection gives the continent a chance to steer the agenda with a more unified voice. Many hope it will help reset the annual cycle in which reports highlight Africa’s disproportionate exposure to extreme weather despite contributing only about four percent of global emissions, followed by negotiations that often end in diluted commitments from major emitters.

Ethiopia recently demonstrated its convening strength by hosting the Africa Climate Summit, where countries on the continent agreed on shared priorities around climate finance. As the seat of the African Union, Addis Ababa has long experience hosting global and regional gatherings, a factor that helped secure its bid.

Ethiopian Ambassador to Brazil, Leulseged Tadese Abebe, told delegates his country had already begun preliminary preparations and said, “We look forward to welcoming all of you to Addis Ababa for COP32.” Civil society groups also welcomed the development, with 350.org’s Rukiya Khamis saying the choice offers a chance to “elevate Africa’s climate priorities and leadership.”

Ethiopia’s environmental image has been bolstered by policies such as banning the import of internal combustion engine vehicles and launching mass tree-planting campaigns. Yet the country faces serious security challenges. The brutal Tigray conflict between 2020 and 2022 claimed at least 600,000 lives, according to the African Union. Tensions between Tigray and Afar have resurfaced in recent days, and relations with Eritrea remain strained, despite Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for peace efforts with Asmara.

While COP32 looks all but confirmed, COP31 remains unresolved. Both Australia and Turkey are competing to host the 2026 summit as part of the “Western Europe and Other States” regional grouping. Australia has stronger backing for Adelaide, but Turkey refuses to withdraw its bid for Antalya. If consensus is not reached in Belém, the conference would default to the UN Climate Change headquarters in Bonn. Such an outcome would be unprecedented.

With Africa preparing to host the world in 2027, negotiators now face the immediate challenge of breaking the deadlock over next year’s summit.