Oracle Intelligence

Online newspaper platform

Conflicts and Wars Defence Diplomacy Security

How a Mossad intelligence decided signaled Iran attack

Just before 11 a.m. on February 11, a black SUV carrying Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived at the White House. He entered a conference room adjacent to the Oval Office, avoiding journalists’ eyes. U.S. and Israeli officials were gathered there. They later moved to an underground situation room. It was unusual for the White House Situation Room to be used for a meeting with a foreign head of state.

U.S. President Donald Trump sat on the side of the table instead of the head seat, facing a large screen on the wall. Netanyahu sat directly across from the president. The screen displayed Mossad Director David Barnea and Israeli military officials. The on-screen figures appeared behind Netanyahu, creating a composition reminiscent of a wartime leader surrounded by advisors.

Ad >>>

The meeting included White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, JCS Chairman Dan Caine, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.

Vice President JD Vance, who was in Azerbaijan at the time, did not attend due to the meeting’s sudden scheduling. To prevent information leaks, the meeting was limited to a small number of participants. Other senior cabinet members reportedly were unaware of the meeting.

Netanyahu conducted a confident one-hour briefing. “That’s a good idea,” President Trump responded. It was the moment President Trump resolved to conduct airstrikes against Iran.

The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 7th that this secret meeting was the decisive factor in President Trump’s decision to attack Iran.

During the meeting, Netanyahu emphasized the existential threat posed by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He reportedly asserted that “now is the right time to replace Iran’s regime” and expressed confidence that the U.S. and Israel could jointly end the Islamic regime. He also displayed potential successors to replace the Iranian regime, including Reza Pahlavi, the son of the exiled former Iranian shah living in the U.S.

Israeli officials claimed that Iran’s ballistic missile program could be destroyed within weeks, that Iran was too weakened to block the Strait of Hormuz, and that the likelihood of Iran attacking U.S. interests in the Middle East was minimal.

Mossad also argued that renewed internal protests in Iran, combined with Mossad’s incitement of riots and rebellion, would create an environment for anti-regime forces to overthrow the government. Additionally, Kurdish fighters could create a front in northwestern Iran, dispersing forces and accelerating collapse.

READ MORE!  Ukraine trades battlefield expertise as Gulf states cope with Iranian drones

When a participant asked about potential risks of attacking Iran, Netanyahu argued, “The risk of taking no action is greater than the risk of taking action.” He claimed that failing to attack Iran now would only accelerate its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

President Trump responded positively to these arguments. White House staff present reportedly sensed that Trump had made up his mind to attack. President Trump had already been deeply impressed by the Israeli military and intelligence agencies following a 12-day war with Iran in June of last year.

After the meeting, U.S. intelligence authorities evaluated Netanyahu’s claims overnight. They reported their assessment to officials before President Trump joined the meeting. They concluded that while decapitation strikes against Khamenei and neutralizing Iran’s retaliatory capabilities were achievable with U.S. intelligence and military power, the likelihood of internal uprisings or regime change led by secular leaders was unrealistic.

President Trump later joined the meeting. CIA Director Ratcliffe called Netanyahu’s regime change scenario “farcical.” Marco Rubio added, “It’s bullshit.”

Ratcliffe stated that regime change should never be treated as an achievable goal in any conflict. Vice President Vance, who had returned from Azerbaijan, and other staff strongly expressed skepticism about the feasibility of regime change.

President Trump turned to JCS Chairman Dan Caine and asked, “What do you think?” Caine replied, “Israel usually exaggerates. They’re pushing hard because they need us, even though their plans are lacking.”

President Trump then said regime change would be “their problem,” though it was unclear whether “they” referred to Israel or the Iranian people, according to the NYT. Trump showed greater interest in eliminating Iran’s leadership and weakening its military than in the unrealistic elements of the plan.

Days later, JCS Chairman Caine warned of the military operation’s risks. He expressed concerns that an attack on Iran would rapidly deplete U.S. weapons stockpiles, with no way to quickly replenish them. He also stated that securing the Strait of Hormuz would be extremely difficult and that Iran would likely block it.

However, President Trump dismissed these concerns, arguing that the Iranian regime would surrender before such a situation arose.

Caine presented the risks and secondary/tertiary effects of each option without offering his own opinion. The NYT reported that Trump repeatedly asked, “What happens next?” showing he only listened to what he wanted to hear.

READ MORE!  Israeli forces find guns, grenades behind MRI scanner in Gaza hospital

President Trump prioritized Iran policy during his two terms, viewing Iran as the sole dangerous enemy and willing to take significant risks to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. The fact that Iran had plotted to assassinate Trump was also part of his motivation to attack. Netanyahu’s persuasion aligned with Trump’s desire to dismantle Iran’s theocratic regime. Additionally, Trump’s confidence in U.S. military capabilities had grown after a successful operation to arrest Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The most vocal supporter of attacking Iran within the cabinet was Defense Secretary Hegseth. Rubio preferred continuing maximum pressure operations over all-out war but did not try to dissuade Trump. Chief of Staff Wiles did not strongly voice opinions on military matters. Instead, she encouraged the president to listen to advisors with expertise, such as Caine, Ratcliffe, and Rubio. Wiles worried about a surge in oil prices ahead of midterm elections but ultimately agreed to the war.

The strongest opponent among Trump’s inner circle was Vice President Vance. He viewed a regime-change war as a disaster but believed Trump was highly likely to attack Iran in some form. He tried to limit the scale of the attack. Once Trump’s decision to launch a large-scale attack became certain, Vance argued for deploying overwhelming force to end the war quickly.

Vance publicly warned Trump that war with Iran would cause chaos in the Middle East and result in massive casualties. He also said voters who believed in Trump’s promise not to go to war would see it as a betrayal.

The U.S. and Israel discussed new intelligence in late February that significantly accelerated the attack timeline on Iran. The intelligence indicated that Khamenei would meet with other top officials in broad daylight on the ground—a rare opportunity for a strike that might not recur. Trump had essentially decided to attack Iran weeks earlier but had not set a specific date.

Netanyahu urged Trump to act. That week, after Kushner and Witkoff held talks with Iran in Geneva, they called Trump. They proposed offering Iran free nuclear fuel to test whether its enrichment activities were civilian or aimed at building nuclear bombs. Iran rejected the proposal. Kushner and Witkoff reported to Trump that reaching an agreement could take months.

READ MORE!  US envoy says Israel fights enemies of human dignity

A final meeting was held in the Situation Room at 5 p.m. on February 26 of last year. All attendees’ positions were clear, as discussions from previous meetings had already taken place, and everyone was aware of each other’s stances. The meeting lasted one and a half hours.

Attendees included President Trump, Vance, Wiles, Ratcliffe, White House Legal Advisor David Warrington, White House Director of Communications Steven Cheung, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Caine, Hegseth, and Rubio.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bennett, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard were excluded from the meeting due to concerns about disruptions to oil supplies.

As Hegseth and Caine explained the attack sequence, President Trump asked everyone to present their opinions.

Vice President Vance said, “You know this is a bad idea,” but added, “I’ll support it if you decide.” Wiles stated she would proceed if deemed necessary for U.S. security.

Director Ratcliffe said eliminating the supreme leader could be considered regime change.

Advisor Warrington stated the war was legally permissible. He argued that if Israel would attack regardless, the U.S. should join.

Steven Cheung listed potential public relations issues but said whatever decision Trump made would be the right one. Leavitt pledged the communications team would do their best.

Hegseth argued that if Iran had to be dealt with, it was better to do so now, presenting a technical assessment that the operation could be executed with a certain scale of forces within a set period.

Caine explained the risks of weapons depletion but stated the military would execute the order if Trump commanded.

Rubio said that if the goal was regime change or inciting rebellion, it should not be done, but destroying Iran’s missile program was achievable.

The NYT stated, “Everyone followed Trump’s intuition. No one tried to stop him.” Trump said, “I think we should do it.” He stated that Iran must not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons or fire missiles at Israel or the region.

JCS Chairman Caine said the attack could be approved by 4 p.m. the next day.

Trump gave the order 22 minutes before the deadline from his plane the next day: “Operation Epic Fury is approved. No aborts. Good luck.”

LEAVE A RESPONSE

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *