Sopuruchi Onwuka

Estimated cost and income losses from Iran’s strikes on Qatar’s gas infrastructure have climbed to about $28.57 billion, as QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil assess the damage to key liquefied natural gas facilities.

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The attacks on 18 and 19 March targeted Ras Laffan Industrial City, one of the world’s most important LNG export hubs, in retaliation for Israeli strikes that Iran says hit the South Pars gas field. The damage has reduced Qatar’s LNG export capacity by about 17 percent and disrupted critical production infrastructure.

Two major liquefaction units, Train 4 and Train 6, were among the facilities hit. Together, they account for 12.8 million tonnes per annum of LNG output. Train 4 is operated as a joint venture with QatarEnergy holding a 66 percent stake and ExxonMobil 34 percent, while Train 6 is owned 70 percent by QatarEnergy and 30 percent by ExxonMobil.

Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs and QatarEnergy president and chief executive, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, said the extent of the damage means repairs could take between three and five years. The disruption is expected to force the declaration of long-term force majeure on some LNG contracts for up to five years, affecting key markets in China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium. The outage is also expected to result in about $20 billion in annual revenue losses.

Beyond LNG, the attacks will significantly reduce production of associated products. Condensate output is projected to fall by 18.6 million barrels, representing roughly 24 percent of exports. Liquefied petroleum gas production is expected to decline by 1.281 million tonnes, or about 13 percent, while naphtha output will drop by 594,000 tonnes, around 6 percent. Sulphur production is also set to decrease by 180,000 tonnes, about 6 percent, and helium output will fall by 309.54 million cubic feet annually, approximately 14 percent of exports.

Additional damage was reported at the Pearl GTL facility, operated by Shell, which converts natural gas into cleaner fuels, base oils for premium lubricants, as well as paraffins and waxes.

No casualties were reported, as emergency response teams acted quickly to contain the situation.

The escalation has intensified geopolitical tensions across the region and pushed global energy prices higher, raising concerns about long-term supply stability. The South Pars field at the centre of the dispute holds an estimated 1,800 trillion cubic feet, or 51 trillion cubic metres, of recoverable gas, enough to meet global demand for around 13 years.