Sopuruchi Onwuka, with agency reports

In response to the escalating shipping crisis at the Strait of Hormuz triggered by recent strikes on Iran, key members of the OPEC+ oil cartel have agreed to a modest increase in oil production, seeking to calm markets amid surging uncertainty over energy flows.

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Oil producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman met virtually on Sunday and approved a 206,000-barrel-per-day increase in crude output from April — a larger uplift than many analysts had expected. The decision was taken against the backdrop of significant disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint that handles more than 20% of global oil transit.

The production adjustment comes as tanker traffic through the Strait all but ground to a halt after warnings from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the waterway closed to navigation in the wake of US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Shipping companies and insurers have responded by suspending transits and withdrawing coverage, exacerbating the breakdown of maritime flows.

Despite the output increase, analysts and industry sources cautioned that the boost may have limited impact while disruption to key shipping routes persists. Spare capacity among OPEC+ producers is concentrated in countries that also rely on the Strait for exports, meaning the additional barrels cannot fully compensate for the logistical bottleneck.

Brent crude futures surged on Sunday in reaction to the crisis, with traders pricing in risk to global supplies if maritime transit remains constrained. Forecasts by some analysts suggest that prolonged instability in the Hormuz corridor could push benchmark prices toward or above $100 a barrel.

OPEC’s move to raise production is intended to help offset market anxiety about supply shortages, but the group emphasized the need for stability in shipping lanes to ensure actual distribution of oil to consuming markets. With the next scheduled review set for early April, member states are expected to continue monitoring the situation closely as geopolitical and logistical factors evolve.