Sopuruchi Onwuka

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has declared that Nigeria produced 1.38 million barrels per day (mbd) of oil in March, below allocated production quota.

Ad >>>

However, the country’s upstream industry regulator, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) explains that Nigeria actually pumped combined hydrocarbon liquids at 1.8 mbd in the month.

The Chief Executive of NUPRC, Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, noted that total oil production, including condensates, showed signs of significant recovery and would surpass the 2.0 mark as more enhanced recovery measures translate to greater output.

Oracle Intelligence reports that whereas OPEC quotas do not recognize condensates and natural gas liquids, the NUPRC calculates all hydrocarbon liquids as part of the nation’s gross petroleum output which forms basis for tax and royalty assumptions.

Mrs Eytesan expressed optimism that crude output could rebound further and meet OPEC targets in April, offering a possible turnaround after months of underperformance.

According to OPEC’s April Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria produced 1.38 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March, a figure which is 117,000 barrels per day below the country’s 1.5 mbd production quota.

February figures had shown an even steeper decline, with production dropping by 146,000 barrels per day compared to January, further widening the gap between actual output and OPEC targets. The continued underperformance means Nigeria has consistently missed its quota since July 2025.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission also indicates that production weakened toward the end of 2025. Output fell from 1.436 mbpd in November to 1.422 mbpd in December, before a brief recovery to 1.459 mbpd in January 2026. That rebound, however, proved short-lived as production dropped sharply again in February.

Over the course of 2025, Nigeria met or exceeded its OPEC quota in only three months—January, June, and July—despite starting the year strongly with production of 1.54 mbpd in January, above its allocated level.

The shortfall has implications beyond export revenues. Nigeria’s inability to meet its quota has also affected domestic refining, as limited crude supply constrains operations at local refineries.