Skip to content
Nigeria’s oil output up in December; inflation down as CBN changes methodology
Sopuruchi Onwuka
Nigeria’s oil production rose slightly in December, increasing to 1.50 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 1.49 mbpd in November. Output therefore matched the country’s OPEC+ quota of 1.50 mbpd.
For 2025 as a whole, oil production averaged 1.52 mbpd, a five-year high and above Nigeria’s OPEC+ ceiling.
Brent crude prices averaged USD 61.77 per barrel in December, down 3.0% from November. On 31 December, Brent traded at USD 60.85 per barrel, a 3.8% decline from 28 November.
In recent sector developments, Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited said it plans to develop new oil fields from 2026 to reverse years of underinvestment. The national oil company stated in reports that it aims to raise at least $30 billion by the end of the decade and targets a 5.0 percent increase in output this year.
Oil production is expected to ease in 2026 from 2025’s five-year high and narrowly miss Nigeria’s OPEC+ quota, noted Fous Economics which also blamed gloomy forecast on security and regulatory concerns. The analysts stated that Nigeria’s production should recover gradually through 2028.
Meanwhile, inflation eased in December following another change to the methodology adopted by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics in calculating indices that shape outlook.
According to the NBS consumer prices rose 15.2% year on year, down from 17.3% in November, the lowest inflation reading since November 2020.
The methodological adjustment was introduced to avoid an artificial inflation spike following the January 2025 rebase and resulted in revisions to inflation data for January–November 2025.
Price pressures eased across several categories, including food (11.3% year on year vs 13.0% in November), clothing and footwear (13.2% vs 15.1%), and housing and energy (17.6% vs 20.1%). Core inflation also slowed, rising 18.2% year on year in December compared with 19.8% in November.
On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices increased 0.54% in December, down from a 1.22% rise in November.
In addition to revising its inflation methodology, the Central Bank of Nigeria announced a transition to an inflation-targeting framework, with a goal of slowing inflation to 13% next year. The Bank expects inflation to continue easing in the period ahead.
