Ziggy Ojiegbe

Plans by Nigerian industrialist Aliko Dangote to replicate his $20 billion Lagos refinery complex in East Africa emerged as one of the defining announcements at the just concluded Africa Forward Summit hosted by the governments of Kenya and France in Nairobi.

The proposed refinery project, estimated at between $16 billion and $20 billion, formed part of nearly $50 billion in investment commitments unveiled during the two-day summit, which brought together more than 30 African presidents, deputy presidents and prime ministers alongside global investors and corporate executives.

Dangote disclosed that the planned refinery would target markets in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, adding that governments in the region would need to introduce anti-dumping laws to protect the investment from unfair competition arising from cheap imported petroleum products.

Speaking at the summit, Kenyan President William Ruto described the refinery project as a strategic necessity against the backdrop of recurring global fuel price shocks triggered by geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Iran conflict. He pledged the support of Kenya and neighboring countries toward the successful execution of the investment.

The summit also marked a renewed diplomatic and economic push by Emmanuel Macron to reposition France’s relationship with Africa around industrial partnerships and private-sector investment rather than aid and military influence.

Macron announced $27 billion in projects involving major French and African companies across sectors including energy, artificial intelligence, agriculture and logistics. Executives from leading firms such as TotalEnergies, Orange and CMA CGM participated in the summit alongside Dangote and other African business leaders.

During a state visit ahead of the summit, Macron also announced that CMA CGM would invest 700 million euros, equivalent to about $823 million, to modernize terminal infrastructure at the port of Mombasa.

The Africa Forward Summit was the first such France-backed summit to be hosted in an English-speaking African nation since the initiative began in the 1970s. Analysts view the gathering as part of France’s broader effort to rebuild strategic influence across Africa following political and diplomatic setbacks in several former West African colonies.

Beyond the refinery announcement, Dangote unveiled an ambitious 20,000-megawatt power generation programme expected to span multiple African countries. He disclosed the plan during a sit-down interview with International Finance Corporation Managing Director Makhtar Diop at the IFC headquarters in Washington.

According to Dangote, the improving financial performance of the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos has significantly strengthened the group’s balance sheet and borrowing capacity, enabling it to pursue broader infrastructure investments across Africa.

“We have now actually freed up our assets and we can raise more money. Our cash flow now is very, very strong,” Dangote said during the interview.

The proposed 20,000MW initiative represents one of the largest private-sector energy expansion plans ever announced on the continent. Nigeria’s installed electricity generation capacity currently stands at about 13,000MW, although actual available supply to the national grid remains substantially lower due to transmission limitations, gas shortages and operational inefficiencies.

If implemented successfully, the planned power investment could exceed Nigeria’s current installed generation capacity and potentially transform industrial manufacturing and energy supply dynamics across several African economies.

Dangote did not disclose the financing structure, implementation timeline or energy mix that would support either the refinery or power projects. However, industry analysts believe the investments are likely to support integrated industrial operations tied to refining, petrochemicals, fertilizer production and export-oriented manufacturing rather than rely solely on fragile national electricity grids.

The billionaire businessman also revealed that the refinery expansion and power programme form part of a wider industrial pipeline that includes liquefied natural gas infrastructure, fertilizer expansion, agriculture projects and a planned deep-sea port with an 80-metre draft capacity.

The announcements come as the existing Dangote Refinery continues ramping up production to meet rising domestic and regional demand for refined petroleum products.

Data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority showed that Nigeria’s petrol consumption rose in April while domestic refining utilization surged to near full capacity, driven largely by output from the Dangote refinery.

According to the regulator, average daily petrol consumption climbed to 51.1 million litres, slightly above the 50 million litres benchmark, while diesel demand rose to 17.3 million litres daily.

Refining utilization averaged 99.1 per cent in April, with the Dangote refinery operating at full capacity for most of the month. Output during the period averaged 53.6 million litres of petrol, 23.6 million litres of diesel and 22.9 million litres of aviation fuel per day, with part of the production exported to international markets.

Fuel stock cover, however, remained uneven, with petrol reserves estimated at 18 days compared to 39 days for diesel and 70 days for aviation fuel.

Retail petrol prices averaged N1,271 per litre in Lagos and N1,371 per litre in Maiduguri, reflecting the continued impact of high global crude prices, with Brent crude trading at about $120.55 per barrel.

In another major disclosure, Dangote announced plans for a pan-African listing of Dangote Group assets, a move expected to open parts of the conglomerate to public ownership across the continent.

He said the proposed listing would involve the sale of approximately 25 per cent equity in the group’s expanding industrial operations spanning refining, petrochemicals, fertilizer, infrastructure and other strategic sectors.

Dangote projected that investors could ultimately receive between $20 billion and $25 billion in shareholder dividends from the listing, which he described as a transformational wealth creation opportunity capable of deepening African capital markets and broadening retail investor participation in large-scale industrial assets.

He added that Dangote Industries Limited could eventually generate annual revenues of up to $100 billion with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization projected at between $30 billion and $35 billion.

Dangote further disclosed that shareholder dividends from the planned listing would be denominated in United States dollars, although investors would retain the option of receiving payments in local currencies. Market analysts say the structure could help reduce investor exposure to currency depreciation risks that have historically discouraged cross-border African investments.

The planned listing also signals a significant transition in the ownership structure of the Dangote empire after decades of aggressive reinvestment.

Dangote revealed that since founding Dangote Industries, he had never taken personal dividends from the company, choosing instead to reinvest earnings into expansion projects across multiple sectors.

Analysts believe the proposed listing could become one of the largest capital market transactions ever undertaken by an African-owned industrial group, attracting strong institutional and retail investor interest across the continent as demand grows for exposure to infrastructure, refining and energy assets linked to Africa’s industrial transformation.