- Millions of barrels still unaccounted for
Sopuruchi Onwuka
Nigeria’s upstream petroleum industry regulator has opened the window into the struggle to recover the country’s petroleum liquids output from thieving vandals and dubious players, indicating unfortunately that while significant progress has been made, leakages still accumulate to millions of barrels per month.
Commission Chief Executive (CCE) of the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Engr Gbenga Komolafe, declared in the latest report released yesterday that the losses that plague the industry are primarily caused by theft and metering issues.
While theft relates to powerful thieving syndicates that have operated lucrative black market exports for decades, metering issues describe accounting flaws in reporting production volumes by commercial players licensed by the NUPRC to produce petroleum in the country.
In a statement made available to the media, NUPRC stated that Nigeria still lost cumulative 2.04 million barrels of oil and condensate, averaging 9,600 barrels per day over the seven-month periodbetween January and July 2025. Th statment did not specify the volumes stolen by thieves and the volumes underreported by operating companies.
No company, asset or individual was mentioned in the report.
The seven-month loss volume, according to the NUPRC, marks a clear departure from the high-loss years that have long plagued the industry.
The pointed out that the industry lost 4.1 million barrels lost ata daily average of 11,300 barrelsall through 2024 calendar year recorded. And with 2.04 million barrels in the first half of the year, the 2025 total loss might still cross the 4 million barrels mark unless the trend further dips into the second half of the year.
“The figures for the period ending July 2025 also represent a dramatic 94.57% drop in crude oil losses compared to the full year of 2021, when Nigeria lost a staggering 37.6 million barrels at a daily average of 102,900 barrels,” a statement from NUPRC reads.
“So far in 2025, only 2.04 million barrels have been lost, which is a reduction of 35.56 million barrels compared to the 37.6 million barrels lost in 2021, underscoring the scale of progress made in just four years,” NUPRC added, even though it doesn’t paint the true picture for 2025 for which only seven months has been reported. The volume of losses for 2025, going by the half year figure of 2.04 million barrels can only be higher.
In proving improvement in the trend of stealing and other losses in the industry, the NUPRC stated that the “upstream oil sector is witnessing a dramatic turnaround, with crude oil losses from theft and metering issues dropping to their lowest levels in nearly 16 years.”
It noted that the 9,600 barrels per day in July 2025 remains the lowest since 2009 when losses dropped to all-time low of 8,500 bpd pointing out that crude oil losses in 2021 were highest recorded in nearly 23 years, making it the peak year between 2002 and July 2025. However, the loss figure for 2021 was not in the statement.
The NUPRC stated that downward trend in losses continued in 2023 when the industry lost 4.3 million barrels at 11,900 barrels per day. The figures fell to 4.1 million barrels, or 11,300 barrels per day in 2024.
Oracle Intelligence reports that whereas the numbers indicate clear improvement from the past figures that were never confirmed by any agency of government, they still post worries over the scale of industrial scale stealing in the operating environment.
The loss volumes which appear meagre when compared to previous figures, are still higher than the combined output of three of some highly applauded marginal field operators still toiling at rates between 2000 barrels per day and 4000 barrels per. Some international independents producers operating elsewhere in Africa stay in the range of production volumes stolen in Nigeria.
According to loss trends provided by the NUPRC, losses in 2021 stood at 37.6 million barrels, averaging 102,900 barrels per day;and 20.9 million barrels at a daily average of 57,200 barrels in 2022.
In exposing the cause of the losses, the Commission blamed operating companies and thieves in the operating environment; saying it adopted kinetic strategies in collaborating closely with security agencies, operators and communities in pursing the problem.
NUPRC also pointed out that it deployed non-kinetic measures to close systemic loopholes, including metering audit across upstream facilities to ensure accurate measurement of production and exports.
The regulator stated that it has also approved 37 new crude oil evacuation routes to further strengthen control and combatoil theft.